A quiet tool

Today's rate is not the number. The rate when you need it is.

Care costs rise faster than most prices, and the need is usually years away. Enter today's monthly rate for the care you would use, when it might begin, and how long it might last, and see the total and what set aside today would cover it.

An assumption tool · Method reviewed September 7, 2026 · Facts · The table · Methodology

https://consideratecapital.com/tools/long-term-care-cost-projection

Monthly cost of the care you would choose, at today's prices

Today's monthly price for the kind of care you would actually use. A nursing home, assisted living facility, or home care agency can quote it.

Yearly rise in the cost of care

Care prices have risen faster than general inflation for decades.

Years until care might begin

Years of care needed

Two to four years is common. Some needs run much longer.

Yearly return on money set aside now

Total cost of 3 years of care starting in 10 years

$616,211

Today's $10,000 a month would be about $16,289 a month by the time care begins, rising 5% a year. The first year of care would cost $195,467, and about $360,000 invested now at 5% would grow to cover the whole stay.

Monthly cost when care begins: $16,289; Up from $10,000 a month today
Amount to set aside today: $360,000; Invested at 5% until each year's bill comes due
Projections a couple needs: ×2; Each spouse may need care, so run it once for each

Care is mostly labor, and its price has risen faster than most prices for decades. The number that matters is the monthly cost in the year care begins, not the cost today. Whether you plan to cover it with insurance, a hybrid policy, your own savings, or Medicaid after spending down, this projection is the starting figure for each. The Illinois tools on this site take the Medicaid path from here.

This assumes a steady level of care for whole years, a cost that rises at the rate you set, and a set-aside that grows untaxed at the return you set. It leaves out insurance, Medicaid, partial years, and any change in the kind of care needed. Method reviewed September 7, 2026. Hypothetical; educational, not advice.

This is a simplified model, not your actual tax return or plan. It only knows what you type in, leaves out rules that may apply to you, and cannot weigh the other facts and trade-offs a real decision depends on. Before you act, talk with a professional who knows your whole situation.

Built by Joshua Mangoubi, CFA, MBA. By using this tool you agree to the tool terms, which include that results vary with each use and over time. Cite this tool, or take a table or chart

How it counts. Today's rate compounded at care inflation to the start year, paid for the years of care and still rising, summed; and each year's cost discounted at the return for the set-aside today.

What it assumes. The rate is a real quote, the inflation is a guess, and the duration is unknowable in advance; a couple runs it twice. Insurance, a hybrid policy, self-funding, and Medicaid are the four ways the number gets paid, and the Illinois tools on this site take the last path from here.

Where we fit in. We integrate tax considerations into your investment strategy and collaborate with estate attorneys and CPAs to ensure your plan is coordinated. We are not a law firm or accounting firm, so we do not provide legal or tax advice. Everything in this material is for educational purposes, based on primary sources. Before taking any action, please consult the appropriate professionals to apply these ideas to your situation.

The facts, in one place.

Six quotable sentences on the cost of care.

Long-term care is priced by the month, and the price rises faster than most things: care inflation has run ahead of general inflation for decades, because care is labor.
The cost that matters is not today's rate but the rate in the year care begins, grown at care inflation, summed over the years it lasts. A need fifteen years away at five percent inflation costs about twice today's number.
Example: a $10,000 monthly rate today, rising 5 percent a year, for care that begins in ten years and lasts three: about $16,289 a month at the start, $616,211 in all. Set aside today at a 5 percent return, about $360,000 would cover it.
The rate to use is the one from the facilities or agencies you would actually choose, in your area: nursing homes, assisted living, and home care differ by a factor of two or more, and Illinois differs from its neighbors.
Insurance, a hybrid life policy, self-funding, and Medicaid after a spend-down are the four ways the number gets paid; the projection is the same whichever is chosen, and it is the first input to all four.
A couple has two projections, not one, and a spouse at home has the Illinois protections the Medicaid tools describe.

By when care begins.

How the wait and the inflation compound.

A $10,000 monthly rate today at 5 percent care inflation, for three years of care beginning at four different times, with the set-aside today at a 5 percent return (hypothetical assumptions; method reviewed September 7, 2026)
Care begins in	Monthly rate then	Three years' cost	Set aside today
5 years	$12,763	$482,817	$360,000
10 years	$16,289	$616,211	$360,000
15 years	$20,789	$786,459	$360,000
20 years	$26,533	$1,003,743	$360,000

How the projection works.

Long-term care is priced by the month, and the price rises faster than most prices because care is labor. A projection therefore has two parts: the rate today, from the facilities or agencies you would actually use, grown at care inflation to the year care might begin; and that rate paid for the years care might last, still rising. The tool adds a third figure, the amount that, invested today at a return you choose, would grow to meet each year's bill as it arrives.

Whether the plan is insurance, a hybrid life policy, self-funding, or a spouse at home and Medicaid after a spend-down, this projection is the first input to all four. It is deliberately not a forecast: the inflation is a guess and the duration is unknowable, which is why the sliders are the point, and why a couple runs it twice.

Methodology.

Inputs. Today's monthly rate, care inflation, years until care might begin, years of care, and the return on money set aside today.
The rate then. Today's rate compounded at care inflation for the years until care begins.
The total. Twelve months of that rate for the first year of care, rising at inflation each year of care, summed.
The set-aside. Each year's cost discounted at the return for the years until it is paid, summed.
Validation. The rate at the start and the three-year total pinned by hand at 5 percent, and a one-year case where the set-aside equals the first year's cost discounted once. A transcription error fails the build.
Not modeled. Partial years, changing care levels, insurance, Medicaid, tax on the set-aside's growth, and the probability of needing care at all. Hypothetical throughout. Educational, not advice.

Revision history.

The assumption tools' history.

September 7, 2026: Added should you buy points (the bought-down loan against the plain one on the same principal and term, so the position is the interest saved less the cost of the points; true break-even as the first month at or above zero beside the simple rule; the horizon verdict; the return the points earn to the horizon as the monthly-compounded rate at which their cost equals the present value of the saving plus the lower balance owed, by bisection; the largest points count that pays off within the horizon; and the seller-paid case set against the same dollars off the price).
September 7, 2026: Added two mortgage assumption tools: refinance break-even (the simple rule, closing costs over the monthly saving, beside the month-by-month count of interest paid on each loan, where total cost is the balance plus the closing costs plus the interest so far, so the new loan's position is the interest saved less the costs; the reset-the-clock effect flagged when a longer term catches up), and 15-year or 30-year mortgage (the same cash on both paths, the 15-year payment invested after the loan is gone against the difference invested for thirty years, compared at year 15, year 30, and a chosen horizon, with the break-even return by bisection).
September 7, 2026: Added three assumption tools: Roth or traditional 401(k) (the same take-home cost grown at one return and taxed at each end, so the answer turns on the two rates; the plan limit from the annual record), pay off the mortgage or invest (two month-by-month paths, the extra to the mortgage and then the freed payment invested, against the extra invested throughout, with the optional interest deduction), and how much life insurance (the present value of the income to replace as a growing annuity, plus debts, final expenses, and education, less existing coverage and savings, beside the ten-times-income rule).
September 6, 2026: Added two assumption tools: sell or keep the house (carrying costs and appreciation against rent and the return on freed equity, with the home-sale exclusion), and the long-term care cost projection (today's rate at care inflation to the start year, summed over the years of care, with the set-aside today).
September 4, 2026: First release of the longevity projection (year-by-year, spending and outside income indexed to inflation, a fixed return on the remainder, with the sustainable-spending solver) and the pension-versus-lump-sum comparison (the lump sum invested and paying the pension, with the break-even return solver).

Canonical address: https://consideratecapital.com/tools/long-term-care-cost-projection

A first conversation

When you are ready, this is worth an unhurried conversation.

A first call with an advisor, just to get to know each other. No preparation needed, and no obligation on either side.

Schedule a conversation See if you're a fit