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15-Year or 30-Year Mortgage?: by the expected return

2026 law · reviewed September 7, 2026

$400,000 at 6.5% for 30 years or 6.0% for 15, the same cash spent on both paths and the difference invested, at five expected returns with no tax on the growth: the position on each path at year 30 (hypothetical assumptions; method reviewed September 7, 2026)
Expected return15-year, then the payment invested30-year, the difference investedWhich leaves more at year 30
5%$902,214$705,052The 15-year, by $197,162
6%$981,637$850,980The 15-year, by $130,657
7%$1,069,883$1,033,505The 15-year, by $36,378
8%$1,168,027$1,262,566The 30-year, by $94,539
9%$1,277,281$1,550,924The 30-year, by $273,643

$400,000 at 6.5% for 30 years or 6.0% for 15, the same cash spent on both paths and the difference invested, at five expected returns with no tax on the growth: the position on each path at year 30 (hypothetical assumptions; method reviewed September 7, 2026).

Educational only, not investment, tax, or legal advice. Results are hypothetical estimates that vary with each use and over time and are not guaranteed accurate or complete. Using this tool creates no client relationship with Considerate Capital, and the site that linked here is not affiliated with it. By using it you agree to the tool terms.